Nielsen IPO A Success

Nielsen Holdings (NLSN) concluded a successful IPO today with gains of over 9% as the company surged to $25.00 during trading hours on the New York Stock Exchange.
The company which measures consumer behavior, and also gathers the SoundScan bar code information from music sales, originally offered to sell 71.4 million shares at $23 for a minority stake of about 20%.
Underwriters for the IPO were J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Over 53 milion shares changed hands during the day.

Living In The Sales Moment

Wouldn’t it be nice? If you could just enjoy the present without worrying about the future? And, as a life recipe there may be merit in that approach. However, for Nielsen SoundScan number jockeys, we can’t help but peer around the corner, (even if it is piled high with snow) to see what lies ahead. Today, country music album sales are a healthy 10.6% ahead of last year. (So, if all you want to know is today’s good news, stop reading and switch to another article.)
OK. You’re still reading so I assume you want to be prepared for next week’s SoundScan reality check. Here goes… Lady Antebellum released Need You Now during the week ending 1-31-10 and opened with an exuberant 481,000 units. This year there are no releases planned that will balance that number (Joe Nichols Greatest Hits is scheduled for 1/25), so assuming next week we sell just a little more than this week, your scribe calculates that country’s YTD album sales balance will take a 21 point dive ending up at about -11.5%. A number which will worsen week by week until new product steps up to balance the 2010 Lady A sales.
Of interest this week is the iTunes-only debut of an Eric Church Caldwell County EP, digital-only which spurred almost 7,000 units. The 4-song package was selling today (1/26) for $3.99. Sunny Sweeney also released a self-titled digital-only EP that sold 1.6k. Amazon priced Sweeney’s 5-track set today at $4.52; while iTunes asked $4.95.
The highest selling country current digital albums were Taylor Swift Speak Now (7.5k), the above mentioned Mr. Church and Jason Aldean’s My Kinda Party (5.6k). The highest selling digital album of the week was a debut from the Decemberists King Is Dead which moved over 60k units.
Saucy Singles
The country digital tracks top 100 list continues to churn over one million units per week. This week 1.25 million of those files found new homes traveling from the cloud to new hard drives and solid state media. Taylor Swift-“Back To December”, Jason Aldean-“Don’t You Wanna Stay”, Kenny Chesney-“Somewhere With You”, Stoney Creek’s Thompson Square-“Are You Gonna Kiss Me Or Not” and the Band Perry-“If I Die Young” held the first five positions. Big Machine/Republic Nashville own spots one and five, Broken Bow Records/Stoney Creek owns two and four, and each pair of artists is responsible for about 100k downloads.

Sony Music Unlimited Sets Sights On U.S.

Sony has rallied support among the major labels—Warner Bros., Universal and EMI—to form a streaming music service that the partners hope will challenge Apple’s iTunes (now passed the 10 billion downloads mark) and give their artists an additional platform from which to be heard. Dubbed Music Unlimited Powered by Qriocity (sounds like- curiosity) the service opened last December in the U.K and Ireland and this past weekend (1/22) in France, Germany and Spain. It is expected to open for U.S. consumers first quarter 2011.
Music Unlimited is available on Sony’s Playstation 3 game console, Blu-ray Disc player, Bravia televisions, personal computers, and will be on smartphones using Google Inc.’s Android operating systems. The new online cloud-based offering contains over six million songs and gives its major label partners more control over business model and revenue, without having to interact with additional entities.
Users are required to pay for song access choosing either basic plan for 3.99 euros per month or the premium plan which costs 9.99 euros /month. Unlike iTunes which allows users to enjoy their song files offline, Music Unlimited users must be connected for the files to stream. The Sony site also has no plans to offer free content or ad supported only content. “Free doesn’t make any money,” said Thomas Hesse, head of digital operations and corporate strategy Sony Music Entertainment.
Analysis: The corpses from a number of streaming and download services lie strewn about the digital highway such as LaLa, the original Napster and many more. Others, like Spotify, have been rumored to reach the U.S. but not yet arrived. However, Sony’s size and its installed hardware user base gives Music Unlimited added market clout—the company expects to have about 350 million devices in the marketplace over the next few years. However, it appears that users have to be connected to listen to the songs they have purchased. In the future that should not be a problem as wireless connectivity seeps further into our world’s infrastructure. However, at this time, there are many areas even inside major cities nicknamed “dead zones” where the signal is not robust, and this may slow adoption of a streaming only model.

Country Sales Brace For Roller Coaster Ride

Think of this week’s Nielsen SoundScan results as a giant coaster ride. The cold steel restraint has pushed you against the seat back and as the car slowly “click clicks” up the steep first curve you calm your stomach saying, “Hey, I’m going to be fine.”
Country music album sales are up a healthy 14.9% YTD for the week ended 1/16/2011. But in two weeks our coaster car will summit the climb and then…. all hell breaks loose.
Yes, it was the week of 1/31/2010 when Lady Antebellum’s Need You Now debuted with 481,000 units. And by 2/28/10 it had scanned about 1.16 million! But where is our half million unit debut for this year? Answer: it already debuted fourth quarter last year when we threw every artist that could get shelf space into the sales mix. And hence the roller coaster analogy, because starting the last week of January, that nice 14.9% increase is going to head downhill like a speeding Coney Island coaster about to fly off the track!
In the meantime, Country Strong is sweetening the opening weeks of 2011.The official cinematic soundtrack sold over 28k units this week landing in the No. 2 spot on the Top Current Country album chart (total sales after 12 weeks is 100,000). Also related to the film is Country Strong (More Music From the Motion Picture) which moved over 15k units for a No. 5 chart position.
Steel Magnolia’s digital-only album debut also performed nicely, lagging the Paltrow/McGraw epic by only a few hundred units and earning it a No. 3 place.

The media savvy Bellamy Brothers immediately tried to connect Spear's latest to their classic, "If I Said You Had A Beautiful Body, Would You Hold It Against Me." However, even the most rabid Bellamy fans will have to admit that the production trio of Shellback, Dr. Luke and Max Martin have created a highly original swirling pop pastry.


As 2010 closed we saw powerhouse sales from Taylor Swift, Jason Aldean, Lady A, Rascal Flatts, ZBB and a few others, but now in the stark January chill, sales have slowed. A few weeks ago at the end of the holidays (12/26/2010) the Top Current Country 75 chart saw sales of 1.467 million units. But this week’s post holiday chart shifted only about 351k. Filling out the Top 5 positions this week are Taylor Swift at No. 1 with sales of over 35k and Jason Aldean sliding slightly to No. 4 with about 25k units.
Digital Track Sales & FACToids
Taylor Swift tops the country tracks list with “Back To December” downloading over 60k times. But over on the all genre Digital Tracks chart Britney Spears vaults to the top with a 411k debut of her new single, “Hold It Against Me.” The media savvy Bellamy Brothers immediately tried to connect the song’s hook to their classic, “If I Said You Had A Beautiful Body, Would You Hold It Against Me.” However, even the most rabid Bellamy fans will have to admit that the production trio of Shellback, Dr. Luke and Max Martin have created a highly original swirling pop pastry.

Finding A Way Out Of The Record Biz Maze

Hollywood entertainment blog TheWrap.com, usually content to bluster over the world of film and TV has issued a pair of music industry articles offering dire 2011 predictions.
“Has the music stopped for the broken record business?” asks writer Johnnie L. Roberts, who arrives at TheWrap via stints for Newsweek and the Wall Street Journal. Roberts quotes an unnamed major label senior exec who says, “No other industry will go through as much change as the music industry will in the next six months.”
Roberts notes that the recent arrival of CEO Lucian Grainge to Universal came with an imperative to cut expenses. Unofficial sources peg those cuts at anywhere from $50 million all the way to a seemingly impossible $400 million. Leadership changes are also in play at Sony with Rolf Schmidt-Holtz out in April. Will the Sony seat be filled by Doug Morris now leaving Universal or could it be Tom Whalley, recently of Warner Music Group who will fill the vacant chair?
“The business of selling music is over as we knew it,” a former label chief said to TheWrap. “And the future of it is yet to be determined by anyone.”
Roberts says that shrinking sales and narrowing margins are finally catching up with companies and points to EMI’s Guy Hands as another troubled example saying, “Unable to earn enough to avoid breaching billions of dollars of loans piled atop the music company, EMI is already essentially in play — to be traded all or in parts to the highest bidder.”

Total U.S. Album sales (in millions) have dropped 58.5% from 2000 to 2010. Source: Nielsen SoundScan.


Analysis: The grim discussion now facing the music industry is not totally unwarranted, although it may be a touch dramatized to help create more emotional headlines. According to Nielsen SoundScan, total U.S. album sales in 2000 were about 785 million. In 2010 those sales had dropped 58.8% to 326 million. During that time period the industry worked to reduce expenses and  take advantage of additional revenues from touring, publishing, merchandise, litigation and more. Those additional income streams have helped to offset the effects of falling album sales. However, little has been done to solve the specific problem of eroding music sales.
Will 2011 be the year that the industry tackles the music sales issue head on? With sales reaching ever lower levels time is running out to find a solution. Educating the consumer and locking files has had failed results. Maybe the next approach is ask consumers to pay on the way into the store.

Etix Acquires Rockhouse Partners

Rockhouse founders L-R: Tawn Albright, Kevin Brown, and Joe Kustelski


Rockhouse Partners, the Nashville digital marketing company specializing in live events, has been acquired by ticketing service Etix.
Founded by former Echo executives Tawn Albright, Kevin Brown, and Joe Kustelski, Rockhouse had recently announced its expansion with Rockhouse Live, a division focused on helping live entertainment properties sell more tickets.
Kustelski and Brown will stay with the company and lead technology/product, and marketing integration, respectively. Albright will move on to a new opportunity helping Nashville-area start-ups.
Etix is an international, web-based ticketing service provider for the entertainment, travel, and sports industries. Etix operates in 40 countries and serves venues, arenas, festivals, fairs, performing arts centers, and multi-use facilities.
“Rockhouse allows us to expand in a direction that reflects the real needs of our clients,” explains Travis Janovich, CEO of Etix. “It’s becoming increasingly complicated for clients to manage and measure digital marketing in-house. And that’s what the team at Rockhouse does best.”

Media Consumption Shifts Content Value

It’s no secret that music sales have tanked over the last several years, and today’s LA Times examines how media consumption is shifting as Hollywood also feels the hurt.
All kinds of media purchases are on the decline, ranging from CDs and DVDs to video games and movie theater attendance. Another major factor impacting the film business is the popularity of renting movies instead of buying them. But according to the newspaper, the most ominous sign of trouble is that the pay-television industry recently suffered a net loss for the first time in history, signaling that consumers no longer see cable as a necessary expense on par with electricity and water.
“The studios and the content companies have become increasingly aware of the problem, but they seem collectively paralyzed about what to do about it,” Craig Moffett, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., told the Times.
The article goes on to point out that technology is making content cheaper and easier to access, but while there has been an increase in online consumption it hasn’t resulted in a corresponding revenue increase. Some analysts believe this may be a permanent shift in the way fans consume media.
According to the newspaper:

Consumers have proved that although they are willing to shell out for gadgets, they view content as cheap filler and are less willing to pay to own it. Because video is seemingly ubiquitous, consumers no longer feel they need to own a DVD or digital downloaded file to watch a movie or TV show.

Another major factor is economic conditions, which the paper says is “widening the gulf between the haves and the have-nots.” Those who are being more negatively impacted by the economy are simply spending less on entertainment.

The “other half” encompasses the lower 40% of American earners, who, after paying for food, housing and transportation, are left with just $100 a month to pay for healthcare, clothing, phone service — and entertainment, Moffett said.
“Right now it is a tale of two cities,” Moffett said. “On the high end, people can’t go up-market fast enough,” he said, referring to affluent consumers who are buying the latest in mobile phones, portable tablets, or Internet-connected TV sets. “Then you have this other half of the country that is being largely ignored in this discussion.”

Sounds like Nashville is singing the same tune.

Aldean's "Party" Goes Platinum

That’s right, it’s time for the My Kinda Party party. Less than three months since the release of Jason Aldean’s fourth album My Kinda Party, it has earned Platinum certification. This makes his third career Platinum album and brings his overall sales total to five million.
“I just can’t say enough about country music fans and the amount of loyalty they have for their favorite artists,” says Aldean. “To think that a million people already bought this record is hard for me to get my head around. And five million since I started? No way! I am so grateful to them for giving me the opportunity to play music every night.”
Aldean launches his My Kinda Party Tour this Friday (1/21) in Little Rock, AR. The trek currently has 30 dates scheduled and features guests Eric Church and the JaneDear girls.

Wii Game Blends Country Hits With Dancing

GameMill Entertainment recently announced Country Dance for the Nintendo Wii, a one of a kind interactive dance video game featuring over 25 country hits. Slated for a Spring release, Country Dance will include the following songs and more:
Carrie Underwood – “Cowboy Casanova”
Brad Paisley – “Water”
Sugarland – “Stuck Like Glue”
Trace Adkins – “Honky Tonk Badonkadonk”
Zac Brown Band – “Chicken Fried”
Rascal Flatts – “Life Is A Highway”
Blake Shelton – “All About Tonight”
Miranda Lambert – “White Liar”
Johnny Cash – “Ring of Fire”
Developed by High Voltage Software, Country Dance will support up to four players in both collaborative and competitive modes. Players will use the Wii Remote to replicate onscreen dance moves, and new songs and rewards will be unlocked as play progresses.
“With the popularity of country music and the dance genre, it seemed fitting to come out with a dance game featuring some of country’s most popular artists and songs,” says Gary Miller, President at GameMill Entertainment. “Between the top-notch choreography and chart-topping hits, this game is sure to get the entire country dancing!”
Now might be a good time to start perfecting the choreography from the “Cowboy Casanova” video.

Online Video Reports Best Practices

According to TubeMogul.com’s Jan. 2011 Report for Online Video Best Practices, fewer than 1% of all videos exceed one million views. The report says, “Even getting featured on YouTube’s homepage yields fewer views than it used to, despite the site’s meteoric growth (or perhaps because of it). Videos in the ‘Featured’ or ‘Spotlight’ spots on You-Tube’s homepage average 86,100 views per day that they are featured. That represents a 28.2% reduction compared to the same measure two years ago (June 2008), when videos featured averaged 119,864 views per day. The result is that paid media is now necessary to get videos watched, even in viral video campaigns.”
Video length is also crucial when measuring video completion rates. According to the report, medium length (1-1:30 minutes) is the best performing range regardless of production format and/or industry category.
Click away rates on pre-roll video advertisements range from 10-38.4% the report finds. Using a sample of 7.87 million video streams over a 48-hour period, with 10-30 second ads, the findings show that pre-rolls work best with premium content. Even with premium content, however, shorter pre-rolls work best in terms of keeping viewers from clicking away.
Social media continues to outrank all other sources, such as search with respect to growth in streams.  Twitter continues to outpace all other referring sources by almost 3 to 1.