Weekly Register: Tracking Swift Mania

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Question: Is it possible to sell 300,000 albums weeks before a project is released?

Answer: You betcha. In fact that is exactly what Taylor Swift and her marketing team have accomplished, which may be a country music first. Of course we are talking about TEA sales (track equivalent albums 10 tracks= 1 album).

Swift’s team released her “Never Ever…” single 8 weeks ago and RTD has sold 2.2 million copies. To further raise awareness for the Oct. 22 album launch, the label began offering a new track each week. Two weeks ago it was “Begin Again,” which now has sold almost 390k units and last week they released title track “Red” which now sits atop the Country tracks chart with debut week sales of 312k.

Summed, Swift has scanned 2,908,459 track sales from the upcoming set. Album launch is 11 days and counting with two more tracks scheduled to debut. So it is entirely possible this new album will pre-launch, Gold (TEA).

Admittedly Ms. Swift is the exception to just about every rule. In fact, her three aforementioned tracks account for almost 32% of the week’s Top 100 Country tracks total.

Also gaining honorable tracks mention this week is Florida Georgia Line at No. 4 with weekly scans of almost 68k. Gary Allan (49k) and Brad Paisley (40k) have debut tracks entering at No. 7 and 8 respectively.

Album Notes
Currently, 27% of total country album sales are digital which compares with 39.2% for all genre product. Therefore 73% of all country album sales are physical. So Walmart, Target and Best Buy–please keep those shelves loaded.

This week’s tale of country album heavyweights begins with Little Big Town’s Tornado which remains No. 1 for its 4th consecutive week racking up sales of 31k and RTD 228k. Blake Shelton’s holiday outing Cheers It’s Christmas debuts at No. 6 with 9k units. Jerrod Niemann also debuts at No. 9 with almost 8k units.

Looking to the Top 200 Top Albums list for perspective we note that Mumford and Sons turned in a second stellar week shifting 169k units for a two week total of 769k. In fact the Top 10 spots featured seven debuts— Muse, Miguel, Three Days Grace, Diana Krall, Jackie Evancho, Cher Lloyd and Van Morrison.

Country album sales (-2.7%) slipped a bit deeper into the minus column this week (see grids), but expectations are high for upcoming releases from Swift and Jason Aldean (10/16).

Aldean’s label has not released a series of tracks from his upcoming new album, but a pre-order link and free stream of the entire album went live today on iTunes. His single “Take A Little Ride,” is No. 9 on the Country tracks list after 12 weeks with RTD sales of 803k.

Stay tuned for the final 11 weeks of 2012 sales!

Martin Guitar Presents “The Pub Deal” Contest

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Martin Guitar has teamed with American Songwriter and its subsidiary, American Songspace, for a contest awarding a year-long non-recoupable $20,000 publishing contract with HoriPro Entertainment Group.

“The Pub Deal” competition, open to songwriters of all levels, began September 12 and will run for 10 weeks on the American Songspace website. Songwriters may enter three best songs for consideration with a $20 submission fee.

The panel of judges, which currently includes John Ritchie (Songspace), Caine O’Rear (American Songwriter), and Amani Duncan (VP of brand marketing, Martin Guitar), will select 25 finalists. The Top 5 will be evaluated by final decision makers including Butch Baker and Lee Krabel of HoriPro Entertainment Group.

“Martin Guitar is thrilled to be partnering to help discover great new songwriting talent,” said Duncan. “Martin Guitar has a long and storied history with many of the country’s best songwriters, and we are always excited to support gifted new songwriters!”

Additionally, Martin Guitars is offering a second contest on the American Songspace website through October 22, by submitting “the albums you couldn’t live or die without” for a chance to win a recently released Martin HD-28E Retro guitar, valued at $4,499.00.

Weekly Register: Has Chart Edict Armed Retailers With A New Weapon?

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The big sales news this week (according to Nielsen SoundScan) was Mumford & Sons’ monster 600k debut, Babel. The group scanned an incredible 70% in digital format (420k). It was the highest first week album tally since Drake’s Take Care in Nov. 2011 which logged 630k. Also the largest digital debut since Lady Gaga’s Born This Way in May 2011 (662k). Also significant was Taylor Swift’s new track “Begin Again,” downloaded over 299k times this past week which earned it the top chart position across all track charts.

Overall the country album sales chart remained tepid as it slipped a wee bit deeper into the minus column. But there is activity on the horizon and possibly some new wrinkles on the sales chessboard.

It’s purely speculative at this point, because no one is talking, but Billboard’s recent chart pricing rule may have created a few unintended consequences. You’ll recall last year digital retailers such as Amazon and Google began offering deep discount sale prices on superstar releases such as Lady Gaga, and the chart publication responded. According to Billboard’s Nov. 21, 2011 policy, “Unit sales for albums priced below $3.49 during their first four weeks of release will not be eligible for inclusion on the Billboard album charts and will not count towards sales data presented by Nielsen SoundScan.”

When a digital retailer decides to sale price a new superstar album at 99¢ or $2.99 it is a calculated move. In most cases they must still pay full wholesale price to the label and therefore lose money on each unit sold. The retailer accepts losing one or two million dollars on this “loss leader” promotion because, in exchange, it gets bona fide customers who set up accounts and get their credit cards into the system. Actually, it turns out to be pretty powerful advertising for the retailer when the album/artist is powerful enough to bring in new customers. Upcoming country music releases from Taylor Swift (10/22) and Jason Aldean (10/16) might just be the kind of product that would fit that profile.

Deep price discounts devalue music in the long term, but short term no one gets hurt, because labels, artists and songwriters are getting paid their regular rate and the pricing boosts unit sales.

But wait.
With the introduction of the new chart rule, units priced below $3.49 won’t count. Not on the chart and not on the SoundScan numbers. For a superstar, wanting to show great sales numbers, losing some possibly large chunks of digital sales could make a very strong launch look less successful. Ouch!

So I can’t help but wonder if this well-meaning, but badly worded $3.49 chart edict has armed retailers with a new weapon, possibly setting off a new round of back room negotiations in the process. The risk of uncounted chart sales could pressure labels to offer incentives that previously weren’t necessary.

Frankly, I don’t support cut rate pricing, especially on great, proven music. But, when it comes to charts it’s also a dangerous precedent to start messing around with reality and arbitrarily count some sales while ignoring others. A better solution might be to gather pricing information and report how many units were sold at various price points.

What are your thoughts? Leave ‘em below or email me at dross@bossross.com.

On The Charts
Jake Owen bounded onto the No. 2 position on this week’s Top current Country chart with his Endless Summer 4 song EP (17k; 94% digital; $3.99 at Amazon and iTunes). Little Big Town retained its firm grip on the Top spot for a third week adding almost 34k new units to an RTD of 197k.

Overall the Top 75 Current Country albums total, was about 268k, representing the new wave of lowered expectations. For example, corresponding weeks over the past few years were 2011-369k; 2010-493k; and 2009-400k.

Stay tuned….

Lady A to Release Live Concert Film

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Lady Antebellum will release the live concert film Own The Night in the US and Canada on Dec. 4. The film will celebrate the successful Own The Night 2012 World Tour, which wraps tonight (10/3) at Australia’s Sydney Opera House.

To be released worldwide in 2013, the DVD includes 90 minutes of performance from the group’s concert in Little Rock, AR this past June, plus tour documentary footage and seven additional bonus cuts.

Fans will be able to purchase the film in multiple formats including DVD and Blu-ray as well as all digital retailers.

“The success of this tour is probably the accomplishment we are most proud of as a band,” said Charles Kelley. “It started as a sketch on a paper plate and it ended halfway around the world performing three nights at one of the most famous venues in the world. To think that we were able to take country music to all of these new places is mind-boggling to me.”

Lady A is currently nominated for Vocal Group of the Year and Album of the Year at the 46th Annual CMA Awards scheduled to air Nov. 1 on ABC.

To read an exclusive MusicRow interview with the band, click here.

Watch behind-the-scenes footage from the tour below.

YouTube video

City National Bank Hosts Social Media Luncheon

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Martha Henderson

City National Bank recently held an exclusive luncheon and seminar entitled, “The Power of Social Media” at Nashville’s Stoney River restaurant. The event featured guest speakers Beverly Macy, CEO of Gravity Summit LLC and co-author of The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing, and Nic Adler, co-owner and manager of The Roxy and son of Lou Adler, who produced such notables as Cheech and Chong, The Mamas and the Papas, Up In Smoke and The Rocky Horror Picture Show.

Martha Henderson, Exec. VP and Manager of City National’s entertainment division greeted the guests, noting the event was such a success in Los Angeles she wanted to bring it to Nashville as CNB’s first official industry event in Music City. Representatives from CNB’s Nashville office included Holly Bell, Sr. VP Team Manager; Lori Badgett, VP Entertainment; and Diane Pearson, VP Entertainment/Team Leader.

Beverly Macy

Macy discussed the fundamental benefits of social media and its critical role in successful companies saying, “You must add value when using social media. If it doesn’t bring value to the table, someone else will do it.” Highlighting country artist Billy Dean’s use of Viddy.com, she discussed helpful tools to get the most from social media marketing and covered the various components of its history, regulation, influence on sales, use in crisis management and much more. Macy, who also writes a blog for the Huffington Post, shared the importance of companies setting policy and procedures related to social media and marketing.

Adler followed with an insightful demonstration of how he took the helm at The Roxy in 1998 and used social media and its then cutting edge concepts to return the legendary club to its original glory. “The phone had stopped ringing,” Adler confessed. “People were talking [negatively] about The Roxy on social media but we weren’t part of the conversation.” After Tower announced it was closing, Adler told the attendees he went to social media to change the negative conversation about The Roxy and the Sunset Strip.

Nic Adler

“It’s important to get involved with your community,” said Adler, sharing the story of how he once read a tweet from someone in The Roxy complaining about the weak gin and tonic. Adler sought out the tweeter in the room and offered a fresh cocktail.

After a delicious meal and insightful presentation, all attendees left with a signed book of Macy’s The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing including an engraved City National Bank bookmark tagging the chapter with The Roxy case study.

IEBA Adds to Talent Lineup

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The 42nd annual International Entertainment Buyers Association (IEBA) conference, set for October 7-9, has added another round of performances and events, with more coming soon.

All major agency parties will be hosted at Nashville’s War Memorial Auditorium, including APA and Paradigm which kick off Sunday (10/7) with Joe Robinson, Yacht Rock Revue, Steel Magnolia, Edwin McCain, Kingston, Barenaked Ladies, Eli Young Band and Spin Doctors.

CAA will host Joe Nichols, Aaron Lewis, and Sarah Darling during a Monday (10/8) showcase before BLA represented Steve Holy, Rachel Farley, Parmalee, and Florida Georgia Line perform later in the evening. The Agency Group will wrap the conference on Tuesday (10/9) with Hinder, Leon Russell, and 3 Doors Down. 

Additionally, Utopia Artists acts Hangin’ with Stogie and The Young Adventurers will have a featured spot, in addition to the Bobby Roberts Company showcasing Morgan Frazier, and Parallel 49 highlighting G-Rule.

Two YouTube favorites, Chris Thompson and Landon Austin, will perform and share insight into during an interview hosted by Jay Frank. Further, Paula Abdul will join a panel discussion on Monday (10/8) on how reality TV has affected the music industry.

IEBA provides networking, showcasing and educational opportunities to strengthen relationships, foster growth and increase revenue for the live entertainment industry. It is an intimate organization representing over $1 billion in buying power.

Visit ieba.org for additional information.

Hunter Hayes Offers Free Unreleased Song

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Road Trips and Guitar Picks, created by Country Financial, has partnered with Hunter Hayes to offer fans a free download of the previously unreleased title, “Light Me Up” on the company’s Facebook page. Until now, the track could only be heard live in concert.

“I am really excited to finally release ‘Light Me Up’,” Hunter says. “This is such a great way to say thanks to all the fans for their support!”

Additionally, CF has partnered with Hayes for 15 dates as he tours with Carrie Underwood’s Blown Away Tour. Fans can enter a sweepstakes to win a VIP experience, concert tickets and backstage passes to meet Hayes and receive a special performance. Additional offerings include support for an upcoming Livestream tour where Hayes will give free exclusive concerts, as well as a chance for fans to participate in the upcoming “Light Me Up” video.

Hayes is also slated to perform on Late Night With Jimmy Fallon tonight (9/28), which airs at 11:37 pm/ET.

Over the past three years, Road Trips and Guitar Picks has partnered with artists as Train, Trace Adkins, Jason Aldean and Little Big Town.

Weekly Register: Digital Divide Becoming Key Metric?

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Today’s sales report “soundbyte” is contained in the weekly grid boxes below—country YTD album sales ticked slightly lower (-1.6%), the format’s digital album sales as a percentage of total country sales was mostly flat, and the Digital Divide is predicted to continue throughout the fourth quarter. Digital Divide? Yes, the difference in digital vs. physical sales rates among various country artists and their fans.

There has been a lot of discussion about the rate at which country consumers are adopting the digital album format. Country’s “heavy” sales season will fast be upon us, specifically new CDs from Jason Aldean (10/16) and Taylor Swift (10/22) whose admirers should show themselves to be above average mouse-clickers. Will these two debuts reset the bar for digital purchases?

According to Nielsen SoundScan, country digital album sales YTD are 27% of total country album sales (week ended 9-23-12). Last year at this time that metric was 20.5%. (For all genre music the metric is 39% YTD vs. 32.4% a year ago.)

Today, with physical shelf space rapidly declining countrywide, the digital storefront is becoming increasingly critical. But as the term Digital Divide suggests, not all artists share in the digital bounty equally, a fact likely to accelerate roster changes as the industry continues to evolve.

A quick look at our Digital Album Sales By Artist example shows the divergence among artists. Zac Brown Band after half a million RTD albums has 46% digital share. Carrie Underwood fans are also purchasing digital format above the 27% average. It’s too early to draw conclusions, but surprisingly, Little Big Town sales (after only two weeks) are leaning strongly physical. Normally, debut week brings a higher digital percentage. For example, this week we have country debuts from Easton Corbin (No. 2; 29k) with 47% digital; Dwight Yoakam (No. 3; 19k) 37% digital, Big & Rich (No. 4; 16k) 27% digital and Ryan Bingham (No. 7; 12k) 58% digital.

Low digital scans could be attributed to several reasons including pricing, but for the immediate future it appears that having a mobilized digital fan base is becoming incrementally more important than ever. When fans can’t easily find their favorite artist’s new music on neighborhood shelves, then sales suffer, UNLESS they are comfortable shopping at their favorite neighborhood online store—iTunes, Play, Amazon or Google.

Artists like Taylor Swift (FB: 34 million; Twitter: 19 million) and Jason Aldean (FB: 6.3 million; Twitter 700k) with passionate online armies are perfectly positioned for the next sales phase.

(Check out MusicRow’s Country Artist Twitter-Facebook chart for more artist info.)

Weekly Register: Taylor Swift, Hunter Hayes Romance?
Hunter Hayes and Taylor Swift make a great couple. I mean chart-wise, of course. Because this week they appear as country’s Queen and King in the top 2 positions on the country tracks chart. Taylor adds a demure 196k downloads this week and Hayes gains a substantially less demure 91k. Don’t look for this chart-top romance to continue, however, because Swift’s just released “Begin Again” track is already No. 1 on iTunes and sure to claim marquee status next week.

Swift’s appeal is so mainstream, her songwriting so inspired and her charisma so powerful that I sometimes wonder if Nashville bizniks realize what we are witnessing firsthand. She ranks with the best of the best and I’ll boldly state that you will never ever ever see another Nashville artist play on this level during your industry tenure.

The country tracks Top 5 also includes Carrie Underwood “Blown Away” (No. 3; 76k), Little Big Town “Pontoon” (No. 4; 63k) and Florida Georgia Line “Cruise” (No. 5; 60k).

Jerrod Niemann Plans to “Rock Your Room”

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Jerrod Niemann will partner with over 360 colleges and universities across the US to present “Rock Your Room” as part of his Free The Music campaign supporting the forthcoming Oct. 2 album of the same title.

The sweepstakes, which continues through Oct. 22, will award one student a live dorm room performance from Niemann and over $700 worth of Sony electronics including a 32” TV, PlayStation Vita Madden NFL 13 Bundle, 2GB W series Walkman and portable iPod + iPhone speaker.

The first runner-up will receive an autographed limited edition vinyl copy of Free the Music, drum head, and black light poster. The next five runners-up will each get an autographed copy of the album.

A free download of Niemann’s current single, “Shinin’ On Me,” is available to fans who pre-order exclusive merchandise bundles, limited edition vinyl, posters, and CDs on his official site.

Swift to Pre-Release “Red” Tracks

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In advance of Taylor Swift’s highly-anticipated new album Red, a new track from the Big Machine Records album will be available for purchase exclusively from the iTunes store for each of the four weeks leading up to Red’s release. In addition, each song will also be available in advance as an exclusive 30-second preview with a brief intro by Swift, each week on ABC’s Good Morning America.

Red contains 16 tracks, all written by Swift, who wrote ten of the songs alone and six with co-writers.

The iTunes/Good Morning America countdown pre-release tracks and previews are scheduled to launch as follows:

September  24 & 25 – Song #1
September 24th – song preview and intro on Good Morning America on ABC (7 – 9 a.m. ET/PT)
September 25th – 12:01 a.m. ET – Song #1 available for purchase at iTunes.com

October 1 & 2  – Song #2
October 1st – song preview and intro on Good Morning America on ABC (7 – 9 a.m. ET/PT)
October 2nd – 12:01 a.m. ET – Song #2 available for purchase at iTunes.com

October  8 & 9 –  Song #3
October 8th – song preview and intro on Good Morning America on ABC (7 – 9 a.m. ET/PT)
October 9th – 12:01 a.m. ET – Song #3 available for purchase at iTunes.com

October  15 & 16 –  Song #4
October 15th -song preview and intro on Good Morning America on ABC (7 – 9 a.m. ET/PT)
October 16th – 12:01 a.m. ET – Song #4 available for purchase at iTunes.com

October 22 & 23
Swift appears live on Good Morning America on the Oct. 22 for album launch and on the Oct. 23 for a live concert.