Karmazin Blames Doom & Gloom

Mel Karmazin, CEO of Sirius XM Satellite Radio blames a “doom and gloom” fourth quarter for the company’s lackluster results. Satcaster investors were saddled with analyst reports, during the quarter, that it might be unable to meet its debt obligations. Finally, Liberty Media Corp. lent Sirius XM over $500 million while taking a 40% stake in the company to cover upcoming payments. Karmazin’s concerns which included the economy and the Circuit City bankruptcy, can be seen in the disappointing subscriber numbers announced this past week. Subs grew by a scant 83,000 in the fourth quarter compared with a combination of 1.1 million in the same period a year ago for Sirius and XM.

On tap for the second quarter of 2009 is a new iPhone application which would offer an option to subscribe to the service without having to buy a new satellite-enabled radio. Analysts cite a plethora of issues that mostly negatively affect the growth and development of Sirius XM. For example, shrinking car sales which lowers the number of new sat-ready radios put into the marketplace. Also discussed is the growing sense that streamed Internet will make its way into the driver-livingroom and sites music discovery outlets like Pandora will provide competitive options that might limit future satellite subscriber growth.

Jack White Debuts Nashville HQ and New Band

Already balancing two successful bands, the White Stripes and the Raconteurs, and various side projects including a recent recording and video shoot with country’s Ricky Skaggs and Ashley Monroe, rock star and Music City resident Jack White has embarked on yet additional adventures. White has established a headquarters for his Third Man Records label and recording/photography studio in downtown Nashville. The new Third Man Records building houses label offices, a vinyl record store, a photo studio and a performance stage.

White’s new band, The Dead Weather features lead singer Alison Mosshart of The Kills, Queens of the Stone Age guitarist Dean Fertita and White’s fellow Raconteur Jack Lawrence on bass. White plays drums and sings in the new band. Last night (3/11), in their first public performance, The Dead Weather played songs from their already-completed debut album, the White-produced Horehound, for about 150 fans. Among those fans was another Nashville-based rocker, Sheryl Crow and country star Martina McBride. In yet another country music connection, The Oak Ridge Boys have recorded a version of the White Stripes hit, “Seven Nation Army.”

Third Man plans a June release for Horehound. “This band is the first project to come out of this new system, which is our new studio in town and this building,” White said.

More Stars, Local Access Come To CMA Fest

Leaders of the Country Music Association, the Metro Government of Nashville, and the Nashville Convention and Visitors Bureau gathered at the Metro Courthouse today (3/11), to announce new plans for 2009 CMA Music Festival including the addition of a new stage on the Public Square in front of the Courthouse and free access for the first time to the concerts at Riverfront Park. Increased local attendance at the Festival has long been a goal of CMA, and the announcement of free daytime admission could be just the ticket for local residents.

“We have always enjoyed a great relationship with the City, but this takes our partnership to a whole new level,” said CMA CEO Tammy Genovese. “We are now able to offer the residents of Nashville and the surrounding communities even more opportunities to access free music, family-friendly activities, and more.”

In addition, CMA has announced that Trace Adkins, Julianne Hough, Lady Antebellum, Miranda Lambert, Martina McBride, and Reba McEntire will join the long list of stars already announced for this year’s Festival.

The addition of a stage at the Public Square provides residents and visitors with a new venue to enjoy the diverse musical styles found in Music City. Dubbed the Music City Zone, and programmed by the NCVB, the area will be free and open to the public each day.

“Adding the Music City Zone gives us a chance to showcase even more local stars and gives us an opportunity to broaden the styles of music that are readily available any day in this city,” said NCVB President Butch Spyridon.

In another first, residents of Middle Tennessee can support music education beyond their Music Festival ticket purchase. The Nashville Alliance for Public Education will be collecting “gently used” band instruments during the Festival to be provided to students and music programs in need. The instruments can be dropped off daily during the Festival in the Dr Pepper®-McDonald’s® Family Zone in Hilton Park.

CMA Music Festival will be held Thursday through Sunday, June 11-14. Nashville’s signature music event features four days of music, with concerts, autograph signings, family activities, and more throughout Downtown. Each year, CMA donates half the net profits of CMA Music Festival for music education in Metro Nashville Public Schools, via the Nashville Alliance for Public Education, through the “Keep the Music Playing” program.

Pictured (l-r) President of the NCVB Butch Spyridon, CMA CEO Tammy Genovese, CMA President and Chairman of the Music Festival Steering Committee Steve Moore, Nashville Mayor Karl Dean, President of The Mathews Company and Vice Chairman of the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce Bert Matthews and CMA Chairman Randy Goodman.

Underwood Croons Mötley Crüe for American Idol

ACM Entertainer of the Year nominee Carrie Underwood has recorded a version of Mötley Crüe’s “Home Sweet Home” for the upcoming season of American Idol. Beginning with the March 11 episode, the song will air each week as the farewell theme for contestants leaving the show. “Home Sweet Home” will release as an exclusive iTunes digital single through March 16, and will subsequently be available at online music retailers everywhere. A portion of the sales proceeds from “Home Sweet Home” will benefit one of Underwood’s favorite charities, The Humane Society of the United States.

Godin Warns Radio At CRS

Seth Godin describes himself as “bestselling author, entrepreneur and agent of change.” (sethgodin.typepad.com) Judging by the intensity and depth of his CRS Keynote address (3/4) his quote seems accurate. Godin has written ten bestselling books including Tribes, Purple Cow and Meatball Sundae plus holds an MBA from Stanford University.

The speaker began by suggesting that root level changes in our culture and technology, are forcing mass media companies (i.e. newspapers, radio stations, music, TV) to evolve. “The entertainment industry was perfect,” Godin began, “but things have changed. Either your boss gets it or you will have to leave them behind,” he replied to a question from the audience. “When mass media attracted the masses, people designed products to be average so they would appeal to that large mass of average consumers. But mass media no longer has a mass audience. It’s fragmented.”

According to Godin’s view, the music industry used to be perfect because there were entire chains devoted solely to selling its products (record stores) and there was scarcity created by the high costs associated with recording and marketing. These factors limited the number of record labels, and FCC-created scarcity limited the number of radio signals. The result, he explains, was a type of oligopoly with a high barrier to entry. But Godin warns that these barriers are dramatically changing. “Wi-fi in cars will mean consumers have an infinite number of stations to choose from. And the cost of recording is no longer a barrier at all.” Summing the new problems Godin said, “Piracy is unstoppable, scarcity is gone and having the RIAA sue your customers hasn’t worked.”

Aiming squarely at the radio audience, Godin urged the industry, to “leap from the old biz to the new. Timid trapeze artists are dead artists. Start dating your listeners and getting their permission for you to send them emails. Radio needs to again be in the scarcity business and can do that by finding a unique niche. The longtail is coming to radio. People want to LOVE what you are playing, not just LIKE. Be their curator and they will pay attention.” The Long Tail concept is all about niche marketing and having smaller, but very loyal audiences.

Godin believes the music industry has passed from an A&R mentality to Brand Management and is now moving toward Tribe Management. “Tribes are key to who we are, our work and our spirituality,” he says. “We can belong to lots of tribes at the same time, all connected. But mediocre won’t work for a tribe. A Tribe must earn its authority to exist from the members and building a tribe requires commitment before success. You can’t market average stuff to average people. Tell a compelling story and your fans will spread the word. “When your communications are anticipated and personally relevant to each member,” says Godin, “then you know you have a loyal tribe.”

Some of the Tribe-building ideas mentioned were; Authenticity—do what you said you are going to do, all the time; challenge the tribe to spread the word; create a culture or secret handshake; be curious and commit to growth; and stand for something.”

Godin readily admits that not all ideas will be strong enough to form and attract a tribe. “You must be able to convince at least 10 industry folks to join before moving forward,” he advises. According to Godin, this concept of Tribes is the rationale for the behavior that is driving the meteoric growth of social networks like Facebook, MySpace and Twitter. Understanding it will be essential toward building careers and media loyalty.

P1 Study Shows Popularity of Social Networks

This year’s Country Radio Broadcasters, Inc.® and Edison Research’s National Country P1 Study 2009 polled more than 13,000 listeners online via email invitation to explore what listeners expect to see and hear on their favorite stations’ web sites, how listeners feel about syndicated versus local programming and the importance of social networking sites among Country P1s. It is the largest ongoing national study of country music listeners and marks the fourth year the survey has been conducted and results presented at CRS. The results were announced today (3/6) at CRS-40 in downtown Nashville. According to Tom Webster, Vice President of Strategy and Marketing for Edison Research, “The majority of the country radio listeners we surveyed have profiles on one or more social networking sites. Status updates and other ‘presence apps’ are how listeners increasingly share their interests, videos and even new music that they like. Though country radio is still the most widely cited means of discovering new country music, radio stations must learn to embrace social networks and interact with their listeners wherever those conversations are happening.”

Of those surveyed, 62 percent reported having a profile on at least one social networking site. Facebook was the most popular site reported (42 percent). 27 percent of online audio listeners surveyed listened “at least a few times a week” to their favorite local country station on the Internet.

77 percent reported that they are listening more to country music on the radio than they did last year. 84 percent of those expressing an opinion agreed that Country music makes a positive contribution to American life, with 57 percent “strongly agreeing.”

19 percent were “very pessimistic” about the economy, while eight percent reported they were “very optimistic.” 18 percent said the economic situation changed for the worse, with 20 percent reporting that someone in their household lost a job in the last year. 77 percent of the sample reported cutting back on discretionary expenses.

CRS—Scene & Heard

E1 Music and PLC Records held a showcase at Second Fiddle last night (3/5) for CRS attendees. Cledus T. Judd debuted new music from his forthcoming CD, Polyrically Uncorrect and Cody McCarver was announced as the newest performer on E1 Music’s artist roster. Dennis Haskins, the actor who played Mr. Belding on Saved By The Bell, co-emceed the Bull of the Woods Gear-sponsored showcase along with Judd. Performers included Daryle Singletary, McCarver, Danny Shirley of Confederate Railroad, Sammy Sadler, Amanda Henkel and Brock Hawkins. (L-R): Sadler; Singletary, McCarver; Henkel; Haskins; and Hawkins.

Holly Williams photo: Peyton Hoge

Holly Williams photo: Peyton Hoge

UMG Nashville hosted a showcase at The Stage last night (3/5). With a line that stretched down Broadway, artists such as Darius Rucker, Charles Kelley, Michelle Branch, Randy Rogers Band, David Nail and Jake Owen came for a night of music with Holly Williams and Jamey Johnson.


ASCAP’s Connie Bradley and Pat Rolfe congratulate Gerry House on his induction in to the Country Music DJ Hall of Fame. (L-R): Bradley, Allyson House, Gerry House and Rolfe. Photo: John Briggs

CMA Presents Consumer Research To CRS Attendees

CMA Consumer Research Committee Co-Chair David Ross; CMA Chairman Randy Goodman; former EVP, Chief Consumer Officer for Starcom MediaVest Group and current Principal for The Right Brain Consumer Consulting, LLC Jana OBrien; CMA Consumer Research Committee Chairman Joe Galante; EVP/Director of Research Services for Leo Burnett Carol Foley, CMA Chief Executive Officer Tammy Genovese; CMA Board Member Ed Hardy; CMA Board Member Jeff Walker; and CMA VP Strategic Marketing & Communications Dan Bowen gather after the CMA consumer research panel at CRS-40. Photo: Amanda Eckard/CMA

CMA Consumer Research Committee Co-Chair David Ross; CMA Chairman Randy Goodman; former EVP, Chief Consumer Officer for Starcom MediaVest Group and current Principal for The Right Brain Consumer Consulting, LLC Jana OBrien; CMA Consumer Research Committee Chairman Joe Galante; EVP/Director of Research Services for Leo Burnett Carol Foley, CMA Chief Executive Officer Tammy Genovese; CMA Board Member Ed Hardy; CMA Board Member Jeff Walker; and CMA VP Strategic Marketing & Communications Dan Bowen gather after the CMA consumer research panel at CRS-40. Photo: Amanda Eckard/CMA

The CMA presented findings from its Country Music Consumer Segmentation Study to CRS attendees this morning, (3/5). The data presented is part of an extensive study commissioned by the CMA to define and examine the key consumer revenue drivers for country music. The study, was based upon a phase one sample of over 7,500 consumers, with a call back sample of 1,850 and also featured 10 focus groups from three regions—Charlotte, Chicago and Phoenix. “The project is perhaps the most far-reaching and comprehensive study of Country Music consumer attitudes and behavior ever undertaken,” said Brian Philips, President of CMT and a member of CMA’s Board of Directors. “The broad sample of more than 7000 consumers gives it statistical reliability we haven’t seen before.”

The study was conducted by Leo Burnett Company and Starcom MediaVest Group using proprietary BrandProspect Segmentation techniques. The CMA Consumer Research Committee was chaired by Joe Galante who, together with other CMA stakeholders, was instrumental in helping to design and fine tune the study’s mission. “We intend to present the findings in a very direct way and continue to respond to changes in the marketplace,” said CMA CEO Tammy Genovese. “We want our constituent groups to fully understand the challenges we face and have a clear vision of what needs to be done to find and engage our consumer in a way that will help build a base of revenue.”

CMA will provide the complete CRS presentation on the CMA member Web site, where CMA members can access the presentation and audio files with their member password. Information will also be included in CMA’s bi-monthly member publication CMA Close Up, beginning with the April/May edition.

The Key Findings presented below are from a CMA press release. Music Row will present its own analysis and questions based upon this data early next week.

•   •   •

Country Fans—Core & Low Funding
[CMA Press] Approximately 2 in 5 American adults ages 18-54 (39.6 percent) qualify as “Country Music Fans,” as defined by the study. These individuals further split into two major groups based on current and potential revenue contribution: a small group or “Core,” who account for the vast majority of Country Music spending; and the larger group “Low-Funding” who engage heavily for free in the Country Music pipeline, but represent future revenue growth potential.

“The ‘Low Funders’ don’t spend a lot of money, but they do spend a lot of time with Country Music,” Jana O’Brien (former EVP, Chief Consumer Officer for Starcom MediaVest Group and current Principal for The Right Brain Consumer Consulting, LLC) explained.

For the most part, they are who you think they are. Demographically, The Core Country Music user is “a bit” more likely to be Caucasian and from smaller towns. They skew slightly female, but there is no significant age or income difference from non-Country Music users.

What does distinguish them from Poor Prospects is a blend of attitudes and behavior across three key dimensions: Affinity (“I like it”); Engagement (“I consume it for free’); and Revenue (“I buy it”).

When it came to “Affinity,” consistently across ages and genders, County Music and some form of rock music were the genres the subjects of the study would not want to live without. Country was favored because of the relevance to real life and universal truths; appropriateness for the family; buddies, BBQ, beer, dancing and fun; the outdoors; and its staying power and enduring appeal.

All genres can be mapped perceptually. In perceptual research, Country Music owned an area characterized by meaning and virtue. Rock on the other hand, is largely perceived as provocative and music-based. This helps explain why Country and rock were “can’t live without” formats for the Country Music core.

A key learning from this data was that it was important to present new artists in a manner that illustrated their personal ties and commitment to the essence of the genre in order to connect with the people who buy the records and concert tickets in a very tangible and sincere way.

Both qualitative and quantitative revealed a clear hierarchy of engagement in Country Music across predominantly free media pipelines with radio at the top, followed by television, Internet, and print. With 79 percent of Country adopters listening to Country radio it is the pinnacle Country Music connection with an average of more than 24 hours spent listening each month.

They know what they like, and don’t like. They like the “free” nature of the medium. They appreciate that it is family-friendly and acceptable for all ages. They like the mood enhancing, energizing quality of the music. And, in general, DJs are a plus. But there are minuses, too, including radio’s perceived repetitiveness and limited song list; the general lack of identifying the artists was a frustration; and the number of commercials led to channel surfing or switching to CD or iPod listening.

An aggregate 81 percent engage in one or more TV pipelines to find Country Music, but spend less time doing it – 13 hours a month versus 24 for Country radio. Popular choices include CMT (53 percent); the CMA Awards (48 percent); the ACM Awards (40 percent); GAC (27 percent); and “Nashville Star” (25 percent).

The Internet is reshaping the media habits of Country Music users and consumers with Web access. The key to online engagement is access – for those 71 percent of those who have it, the Internet becomes the central medium. Not surprisingly, younger Country Music enthusiasts are much more likely to have a digital Country Music engagement focus and will undoubtedly carry this tendency into their future years.

Like their interests, the dollar of the Country Music user is spread across a range of revenue sources. The largest percentage still purchase CDs (54 percent). Among Country consumers ages 18-54, 65 percent are “CD-dominant” and 35 percent are “Digital-dominant” based on total Country Music acquired. And once they become “Digital-dominant” Country Music acquirers, they contribute very little CD revenue.

Digital-dominants pay for less than half of the Country Music they acquire with far more unpaid acquisition via CD ripping versus illegal downloads. The percentage of Country Music volume paid for by Digital-dominants is 38 percent, compared to 67 percent for CD-dominant users. Currently CD copying (piracy) is more prominent than illegal downloads. Thirty-eight percent have borrowed a Country CD to copy compared to 23 percent who have gotten free downloads. “They look at copying CDs as ‘sharing’ not ‘stealing’,” O’Brien offered.

Overall, 1 in 4 Country Music supporters attended a Country concert in the past year, which translates to 11 percent of the US adult population ages 18-54. They see it as the “best way” to experience the music. They believe it deepens the artist/fan relationship. There is a strong interest in cross-genre concerts with Country and rock. On the negative side, they felt “ripped off” by the price of merchandise and they were frustrated by unknown or hidden fees that increased the cost of the concert-going experience.

Poor Prospects
So, who is not a fan? There are three types of “Poor Prospects” that account for 60.4 percent of the American adult population ages 18-54:
1.    Disengaged Gift Givers (7.9 percent), who dislike Country Music, but sometimes give it as a gift to people who like it
2.    Music Rejecters (34.5 percent), who are not engaged with music of any kind
3.    Country Music Rejecters (18 percent), who are engaged with music, but dislike Country Music

“Don’t waste valuable financial resources or time on this group,” said Carol Foley (EVP, Director of Research Services for Leo Burnett). “We encourage you to write off the ‘Poor Prospects’ because this group is the least likely to become Country Music consumers capable of generating future income for the industry.”

The industry’s “bread and butter” is the “Core.” They are music lovers who drive extensive revenue and they can be divided into two groups: CountryPhiles and MusicPhiles.

CountryPhiles
CountryPhiles skew slightly female (54 percent) versus the average American adult, they are more likely to be married, Caucasian and from small towns. They are passionate fans of Country Music. They appreciate the core values of the format and the artists. And, their commitment translates to both significant engagement time and industry revenue. “Protecting and more fully leveraging this group should be the Country Music industry’s top priority, because even small erosion among this group has substantial negative revenue implications,” Foley said. “The good news is that they are not entirely drained as a revenue stream and the study revealed opportunities to generate more engagement.” They engage with many Country Music portals, but less with digital. Only half have home Internet, but many access the Internet elsewhere – at work or away from home. There were three key reasons driving lack of home Internet access: the cost, they had no interest/or need, and their inexperience or content concerns. Fifty-eight percent of this group did claim that they want to have Internet connectivity in the near future. This group accounts for a major proportion of total Country Music related media hours – especially with radio (33 percent). CountryPhiles claim Country radio as the No. 1 vehicle for introducing new Country Music. They are very CD/album oriented and are willing to pay for music. More than half (55 percent) believe you really miss something when you only purchase songs rather than the whole CD by an artist. Fifty-six percent believe it is important to support the artists they love by paying for their music.

MusicPhiles
MusicPhiles skew male (55 percent) versus the average American adult, they are younger, more diverse (especially Hispanic) and more urban. They are extremely hip, high tech, engaged music lovers who happen to include Country Music in the mix. “They like it, more than they love it,” O’Brien said. MusicPhiles are “music ambassadors” who spend as much or more on buying Country Music CDs for others as for themselves. Though heavily involved with all sorts of media, they are not as deeply engaged with Country radio, TV or Web. In contrast to the CountryPhiles, they are much more tech-savvy and digitally focused. They have large CD and digital libraries and their Country Music collections exceed those of CountryPhiles. While they spend less time with Country radio than CountryPhiles, they still cite it as their No. 1 source when it comes to discovering new music.

MusicPhiles and CountryPhiles collectively contribute a significant amount of money to the format, so it was important to look at the impact of current economic conditions on these two Core Country Music segments with additional research conducted in November.

Economic Factors
Nearly 9 in 10 CountryPhiles have negative perceptions of the overall state of the economy and 6 in 10 express personal financial challenges. Versus total American adults, MusicPhiles are less intensely negative about the overall economy, and fewer (51 percent vs. 59 percent) express personal financial challenges.

More than half of CountryPhiles claim they are already spending less on Country Music as well as many other discretionary items.
“We do not see this trend reversing anytime soon,” O’Brien said.
With that in mind, it is important to maximize and grow the potential spending of the “Low-Funders.” There are five distinct types of people who have a strong Country Music affinity and a fair amount of engagement, but who fail to generate much revenue:

1.    Today’s Digital: have some potential to engage with digital content, but are resistant to traditional media and to revenue of all types
2.    Today’s Traditional: CountryPhiles in training. This group just hasn’t made the revenue commitment, yet
3.    Classical Digital: Men, very into gritty rock-influenced, classic artists. Operating almost entirely online with weak revenue
4.    Classic Traditional: Older and fixated on classic artists. They are feeling “left behind.” They spend time with traditional media, but are having declining revenue behaviors because of the impression that there is nothing left to buy
5.    Pop Country: Very urban, responding to new, female, pop-leaning Country artists. MusicPhiles in training.

Obviously, “Today’s Traditional” and “Pop Country” groups have better revenue growth potential than the other three.

Implications
The implications for CMA and the Country Music industry are clear. The Core Country Music target is small (7.6 percent), but dedicated and a huge revenue generator for the business. They account for a major proportion of Country radio listening and they feel and crave a strong connection to the format.

The Low Funding segment is a much larger consumer base (36 percent) with potential growth. They are listening to radio online and offline and are notable and diverse in their unpaid engagement with Country Music.

KCRS Live

CRS-40 festivities continued on Wednesday (3/4) with the ASCAP sponsored “KCRS Live Show” featuring Jimmy Wayne, Kelley Lovelace, Ashley Gorley and Jonathan Singleton. (L-R): ASCAP’s Mike Sistad, Singleton, Gorley, ASCAP’s Connie Bradley, Wayne and Lovelace.

Music City Jam

Last night’s Music City Jam was headlined by Tim McGraw and sponsored by the Academy of Country Music. The Warren Brothers hosted with Lance Miller, Halfway To Hazard, Lori McKenna and McGraw’s niece Catherine Raney performing. Faith Hill introduced special guest Randy Owen. ACM’s Bob Romeo announced Taylor Swift as next year’s Music City Jam performer.

Tim McGraw, Faith Hill, Randy Owen and Lance Miller

Tim McGraw, Faith Hill, Randy Owen and Lance Miller