The year-end sales goalposts are ahead with only three weeks remaining. Industry sales execs are pretty much on autopilot now, or in holiday lingo we say, “their stockings are hung [buy] the chimney with care hoping the fans soon will be there…” But carefully pre-planned wheels were spinning last week as we saw a new duo debut at No. 3 on the Current Country Albums with an impressive 63k in sales.

Florida Georgia Line’s unusual launch has broken all the rules. They leapt from indie to major label to radio success in what seemed like a single bound and now add album sales success to their achievements! And who’s counting—(we are)—but #FLAGALINE’s “Cruise” also tops the country digital tracks list with over 72k downloads this week for a RTD (release to date) total of almost 1.3 million. Congrats guys and welcome to the Music City hit parade.

It is a foregone conclusion country album sales will surpass 2011 because we are currently 3.4% ahead and only need to sell an average of 1.142 million units per week to break even. That is child’s play for the the last few holiday weeks even in these times of fiscal cliff concerns, unemployment and other events best forgotten during holiday festivities. Music remains a great gift. This past week, for example, we scanned 1.372 million units. So although I’m usually a bit reserved, I’m going to yell out a giant,

………..Y-E-E-H-A-W! Way To Go Nashville!

Ms. Swift, wearing Red for the holidays, continues to top the country albums chart spinning another 167k units of music into platinum. She performed at New York Z100s Jingle Ball at Madison Square Garden last weekend and the New York Post said,

“She’s a head-turner and she knows it, but that new sense of confidence suits her. The about-to-turn-23-year-old wasn’t phoning anything in. Watching her commit to the powerchord chorus of “I Knew You Were Trouble” was a minor revelation and a poke in the eye for those who still think of her as syrupy teen-fluff. As if to emphasize that point, the finale of “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” saw her issuing a defiant “screw you” to an ex-boyfriend with all the fire of a woman who truly has been wronged, rather than a naive adolescent trying to imagine real heartbreak.” Read the full review here.

And this just in, confirmation from research group NPD Group that “…despite the rising use of Pandora, Spotify, Rhapsody and other options for streaming music, CDs and digital music downloads continue to be a relevant gift choice for many consumers.” NPD reports that 12% of consumers say music will be on their holiday gift lists and they will increase music spending by 18% this year. “Consumers know they can’t go wrong with music as a gift,” says Russ Crupnick, Sr. VP of industry analysis at NPD, “which is why we continue to see music on holiday gift lists, despite the expanding number of free music-streaming options.” Good news for album marketers today, but be prepared for next year when streaming services will no doubt tout subscription gift cards as the “new” best way to give the gift of music.

What would you rather find under the tree on the big day? One album, or an introductory Spotify subscription gift card? Tell Santa and leave your comment below…

The Voice—soap opera or talent incubator? Final four contestant Cassadee Pope.

Country sales continue to outpace the overall industry with only four weeks remaining in the 2012 sales calendar. This week albums with the Music City Made moniker increased Y/Y from 3.9% to 4%, while all-genre slid from -3.9% to -4% Y/Y. Country needs to sell a total of 42.923 million albums or 1.2 million per week to break even with 2011. (This post-Thanksgiving week, country album sales totaled 1.12 million.)

The 3-car holiday choo-choo continues to ring registers as Lady A (59k), Blake Shelton (53k) and Scotty McCreery (41k) chug into this week’s No. 2, 3 and 4 country album positions.

At the top of the list is Taylor Swift’s Red (137k) which after six weeks has total sales of 2.216 million. It may seem almost unbelievable, but the Big Machine elves and Santa Scott are celebrating as Red sales outpace Swift’s previous Speak Now outing which hit week six on 12/5/10 with 2.147 million in sales. (Dear Santa, I’d like a Macbook Air for Christmas.)

As we lunge into seasonal sales, the popularity of plastic over digital grows as evidenced by the W/W decline for both country and all genre in the Digital Album Sales % of Total Album Sales. One possible explanation is that some gift buyers are not regular music purchasers and still conditioned to buying something they can wrap and place under the tree (which outweighs a gift card).

Over in the Tracks Trenches, the Digital Country Chart shows Florida Georgia Line and The Band Perry in the top positions with “Cruise” (67k) and “Better Dig Two” (53k). Taylor Swift “We Are Never Ever…” (40k) and Hunter Hayes “Wanted” (39k) fill spots No. 3 and 4.

Vetting The Voice
Country Tracks position No. 5 brings us to an interesting bend in the road filled by The Voice contestant Cassadee Pope, who last night was voted to move into the final four. Pope’s version of “Over You” topped the country digital tracks chart last week with sales of 152k! This week it added 39k downloads for a two-week total of almost 200k.

Regular readers will note that Pope is coached by Voice judge Blake Shelton and the CMA Song of the Year she performed was written by Shelton and wife Miranda Lambert. A careful chart search shows that Pope also has a self-titled EP on the Top New Artist Albums chart (No. 80) that scanned 462 units this week and digital track “Are You Happy Now?” which entered the Digital Tracks list at No. 27 with 43k downloads. A spectacular showing by anyone’s yardstick, but is this art or commerce? Are we seeing the birth of a new superstar or merely the careful cultivation of this year’s crop of contestants? Pope’s version of “Over You” truly connected with TV viewers, but this morning, after her lackluster showing last night, she fell outside of iTunes Top 10 and behind fellow contestants Terry McDermott and Nicholas David.

Now in its third season, The Voice has had excellent ratings, been a springboard of media exposure for its judges (especially Mr. Shelton), but has utterly failed to launch any new artist careers. Frankly, it looks like this year’s final four might again prove the rule. And the rule is that TV talent shows have become more like soap operas than talent incubators. Contestants are artfully showcased amid lavish sets, state of the art lighting and with the benefit of high-dollar hair, makeup and styling. But listen carefully to details like vocal mixes and how instruments and backup voices are being used to find clues as to what the future might really bring for each performer. It’s a rare moment when a Miranda Lambert or Carrie Underwood steps out on the TV stage.

In the meantime, stay tuned as we count down the final four—not the final four contestants of course—the final four sales weeks!!!