Lagging Country Sales Show Industry In Transition

David M. Ross – 07/05/2007

The record business continues to be an industry in transition. Great artistry remains the catalyst which moves consumers to want to own music, but the format and prices at which they choose to acquire that music is clearly a moving target.

Overall YTD album sales were down 15% in the U.S. according to Nielsen SoundScan data (YTD 2007—229.8 million units; YTD 2006—270.6 million). Digital tracks however, showed a solid 49% YTD increase rising from 281 million in 2006 to 417.3 million. YTD 2007 Digital album sales (23.5 million) expanded, growing 60% over 2006.

Daughtry had the highest selling 2007 YTD CD, scanning 1.7 million units. Carrie Underwood was the only Nashville artist in the Top Ten, landing at No. 5 with 1.1 million units. Underwood also managed to be the only Nashville artist in the Top 10 YTD Digital Tracks list. “Before He Cheats” sold 1.1 million tracks for a No. 10 position.

Country music sales for the first half of 2007 have fallen 29.6% behind last year from 36.006 million to 25.346 million (in spite of, and including, a 33% increase in country digital album downloads). Interestingly, while digital album sales account for about 10% of the all genre numbers, in country they represent only 5% of the totals.

Estimates of how country sales will end the year vary greatly, and will depend upon the albums released and how well they are able to do. So far this year, many of the superstar releases have been unable to surpass or even equal previous results. (see graph.) Some of the upcoming heavy tonnage releases scheduled for the second half of 2007 include CDs from Kenny Chesney, Rascal Flatts, Brooks & Dunn, Carrie Underwood, Josh Turner, Little Big Town and Trisha Yearwood. Also unconfirmed, but rumored, is a possible non-exclusive Garth Brooks release.

These Top Five first week 2nd quarter debuts are representative of sales for all country artists and illustrate why country music unit sales are down 29.6% YTD. First week sales deficits get compounded over the life of the album and can greatly effect total sales. Toby Keith scored the largest first week sales (202,414) followed by Brad Paisley (197,151), Martina McBride (143,681), Big & Rich (102,927) and Jason Aldean (98,245).